Surging to Oblivion

Can we remember why the US military initiated the Surge? It was a means to an end-to increase security and stability. The Surge was the vehicle the Maliki government needed to move forward on key political and economic matters. It was NOT intended to win the war on the ground but to give the Iraqis time to resolve political disputes and form a real multi-ethnic coalition government. How are we doing so far?

From NBC News…

During an interview on "Meet the Press," David Gregory interviewed Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) about the war, and noted the political dynamic surrounding the Maliki government.

"Seventy-four members of parliament have boycotted, as you say, the 275-member body. There are 12 ministers from the 38-member Cabinet no longer attending Cabinet meetings. There was an oil revenue law where they would share between Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites that was passed but without Sunni participation, which renders it virtually meaningless, and the agreement on the oil revenue part has still not been struck. So this is that fundamental question for the government of Nouri al-Maliki: Can he actually govern a unity government?"

From CBS News…

”For four years, Iraqis have been waiting in lines at gas stations in Baghdad, waiting for their lives to get better. But, as CBS News chief foreign correspondent Lara Logan reports, the situation has gotten worse and their government is now in crisis. That has led senior Iraqi leaders to demand drastic change. CBS News has learned that on July 15, they plan to ask for a no-confidence vote in the Iraqi parliament as the first step to bringing down the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Even those closest to the Iraqi prime minister, from his own party, admit the political situation is desperate. ‘I feel there is no strategy, so the people become hopeless," said Faliy al Fayadh, an MP from the Dawa Party. "You can live without petrol, = without electricity, but you can't live without hope.’”

From ABC News…

“But while the United States may be making advances on the ground in some areas, it risks losing the battle of perceptions overall. When a truck bomb explodes in a market place and kills 150 innocent civilians, the message is: Danger can be anywhere, nowhere is safe.

Nor can Iraqis draw much solace from their own government, paralyzed and largely confined to the Green Zone, unable to provide security or basic services for everyday life in the country as a whole. In Baghdad, the provision of electricity and drinking water has actually gotten worse.

Parliament is almost completely dysfunctional — 74 of the 275 members of parliament now boycott the sessions entirely, meaning that there is rarely a quorum in parliament to vote on any laws. Iraq desperately needs to pass a new oil law that would guarantee a fair distribution of oil revenues between Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds. At the moment, Sunnis feel they are being denied their fair share of the national wealth. There is a draft law that has been prepared, but the parliament has not even begun to debate it. Sunnis are so frustrated about being left out in the cold that they are threatening to file a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.”


I’m waiting for the American Enterprise Institute and Heritage Foundation zealots to come forward with their various op-ed pieces defining a different justification for the Surge. Or will they invent alternate ways to define the Surge as a success? The Talking Heads on Faux News already are asking for more time to assess the effectiveness of the new military policy.

There is no political resolution for the morass in Iraq in the foreseeable future. I believe the Maliki government is completely impotent and beholden to the Shiite majorities. The Prime Minister will reshuffle his Cabinet, meet with high-level American delegations, and ask for more time. It is very clear that the Sunnis and Kurds do not trust him or believe in the existing parliamentary process.

Bush, sitting in his Crawford Bunker, may still believe that his imaginary 3rd Army will stop the Russians at the Brandenburg Gates, but I don’t. Ultimately, the Surge was a cynical political calculation to stall for time and drag the war into the next Presidential election cycle. Dump the mess on the next President to fix.

Some grownups have to assume leadership here. Are there any left in the White House? Or do they all try to escape Berlin before the Russians get there?