The various Washington pundits are trying to slowly slither away from the imploding morass in Iraq. Their recent columns and sound bites reveal that they are shedding their former skins. They are desperately trying to generate a new outer casing that reflects the very best newly reconstituted conventional wisdom on the Iraqi War.
Our collective memory is so short and news cycle is increasingly fast. They do not need assume responsibility for their past judgments, simplistic analysis, overly optimistic projections and inability to conduct critical thinking. After all, we were all duped by bad intelligence, blind patriotism, and a need to remain friends with all the other indigenous DC Copperheads, Water Moccasins and Rattlesnakes.
Since benchmarks are the rage, I thought I would offer some examples where the punditry class has not met our collective expectations. In fact, some pundits have laid too many eggs and are known as a species to eat their young! They may have shed their skins but they still are just snakes with new skins.
Our “the World is a Fiat” friend Tom Friedman is the master equivocator. Three years ago he offered his compelling analysis of Bush’s strategy in Iraq.
Big Tom was slammin’ down benchmarks faster than Jenna Bush drinks Cosmos at a Friday night Happy Hour.
From our friends at Fairness and Accuracy in the Media:
A review of Friedman's punditry reveals a long series of similar do-or-die dates that never seem to get any closer.
"The next six months in Iraq—which will determine the prospects for democracy-building there—are the most important six months in U.S. foreign policy in a long, long time."
(New York Times, 11/30/03)
"What I absolutely don't understand is just at the moment when we finally have a UN-approved Iraqi-caretaker government made up of—I know a lot of these guys—reasonably decent people and more than reasonably decent people, everyone wants to declare it's over. I don't get it. It might be over in a week, it might be over in a month, it might be over in six months, but what's the rush? Can we let this play out, please?"
(NPR's Fresh Air, 6/3/04)
"What we're gonna find out, Bob, in the next six to nine months is whether we have liberated a country or uncorked a civil war."
(CBS's Face the Nation, 10/3/04)
"I think we're in the end game now…. I think we're in a six-month window here where it's going to become very clear and this is all going to pre-empt I think the next congressional election—that's my own feeling— let alone the presidential one."
(NBC's Meet the Press, 9/25/05)
"Maybe the cynical Europeans were right. Maybe this neighborhood is just beyond transformation. That will become clear in the next few months as we see just what kind of minority the Sunnis in Iraq intend to be. If they come around, a decent outcome in Iraq is still possible, and we should stay to help build it. If they won't, then we are wasting our time."
(New York Times, 9/28/05)
"We've teed up this situation for Iraqis, and I think the next six months really are going to determine whether this country is going to collapse into three parts or more or whether it's going to come together."
(CBS's Face the Nation, 12/18/05)
Has Tom met his punditry benchmarks? Hell no. But who cares, his fellow pundits gave him a pass like he does for them. Now, what is Slammin’ Tom saying now?
In August 2006, here is Slammin Tom’s take in a column for the NY Times:
“It is now obvious that we are not midwifing democracy in Iraq. We are baby-sitting a civil war” and it’s time to “disengage…[T]hree years of efforts to democratize Iraq are not working. That means “staying the course” is pointless, and it’s time to start thinking about Plan B — how we might disengage with the least damage possible.…But the administration now has to admit what anyone — including myself — who believed in the importance of getting Iraq right has to admit: Whether for Bush reasons or Arab reasons, it is not happening, and we can’t throw more good lives after good lives…..The longer we maintain a unilateral failing strategy in Iraq, the harder it will be to build such a coalition, and the stronger the enemies of freedom will become.”
And as any effective pundit, Slammin’ Tom can find a way to slither out of any accountability for his woefully stupid analysis. He creates a strawman! In a January 2007 response to caller on an NPR radio show:
“Look, I understand people who opposed the war. Some opposed it for military reasons, because they’re against war, some opposed it because they hate George Bush, some opposed it because they didn’t believe Arabs are capable of democracy. I wasn’t in that group. I really believed that finding a different kind of politics in collaboration with people in that region was a really important project….I’m really sorry. ….I promise, I really promise, I’ll be a better liberal. I’ll not in any way support any effort to bring democracy to a country ruled by an oil-backed tyranny. I promise I will never do that again. I promise I’ll be a better liberal. I will view the prospect of Arabs forging a democracy as utterly impossible. They’re incapable of democracy. I agree with you on that now.”
What a completely stupid thing to say that I opposed the war because I hate George Bush or I don’t believe Arabs are capable of democracy. Many of us opposed the war for slightly more nuanced reasons that Slammin’ Tom articulates. “The World is a Fiat” Tom always gets a pass even though he didn’t meet his self-proclaimed benchmarks.
Here is another slithering pundit who missed his benchmark–Richard Cohen.
In 2002, here is what Mr. Cohen wrote in his column:
“Going to war with Saddam—it’s time… The removal of Saddam is a worthy and sensible goal. He’s a beast—a hands-on murderer who rules by fear . . . . Two things are a given. The first is the nature of the Iraqi regime. It will persist in developing weapons of mass destruction the way lemmings head for the sea or junkies seek a fix . . . . Iraq is probably five years or so away from developing an atomic weapon, but why wait for that to happen? . . . For the sake of international law, for the sake of preventing nuclear blackmail, for the sake of ridding the world of a leader with Hitler’s megalomania and the weapons to fuel it, war may be the only course.”
In 2006 column, Mr. Cohen was waxing why young men must sacrifice their lives in Iraq for the past mistakes made in Vietnam.
"As with Vietnam, we are fighting now merely not to lose -- to avoid a full-fledged civil war (it's coming anyway) or to keep the country together, something like that. But not for victory. Not for democracy. All this talk of the Iraqis doing more on their own behalf is Vietnamization in the desert rather than the jungle. What remains the same is asking soldiers to die for a reason that the politicians in Washington can no longer explain. This, above all, is how Iraq is like Vietnam: older men asking younger men to die while they try to figure something out."
Mr. Cohen has never met his benchmarks. Frankly, I am not waiting to September. Stick a fork in it Dicky, you’re done!
And about Bill Kristol Clear? …A pundit for the Neo-Con Weekly Standard and ubiquitous talking head on Sunday chat shows. Here are some predictions just before we invaded Iraq:
“We are tempted to comment, in these last days before the war, on the U.N., and the French, and the Democrats. But the war itself will clarify who was right and who was wrong about weapons of mass destruction. It will reveal the aspirations of the people of Iraq, and expose the truth about Saddam's regime. It will produce whatever effects it will produce on neighboring countries and on the broader war on terror. We would note now that even the threat of war against Saddam seems to be encouraging stirrings toward political reform in Iran and Saudi Arabia, and a measure of cooperation in the war against al Qaeda from other governments in the region. It turns out it really is better to be respected and feared than to be thought to share, with exquisite sensitivity, other people's pain. History and reality are about to weigh in, and we are inclined simply to let them render their verdicts.”
Kristol-Clear also is an expert on intra-religious cooperation across the Islamic World.
"There's been a certain amount of pop sociology in America ... that the Shia can't get along with the Sunni and the Shia in Iraq just want to establish some kind of Islamic fundamentalist regime. There's almost no evidence of that at all. Iraq's always been very secular."
In another cogent insight: “T]here are hopeful signs that Iraqis of differing religious, ethnic, and political persuasions can work together.…This willingness is the product of what appears to be a broad Iraqi consensus favoring the idea of pluralism.”
On a chat show on Faux News last year, Kristol-clear was still optimistic.
“The country remaining united (with some federation), with the insurgency under control in the sense of not being able to destroy the country or launch a large sectarian civil war. No weapons of mass destruction. No aggression against neighbors. And that's quite possible, incidentally. I think it was very possible three years ago, and I think it remains possible.”
Kristol-clear continues to stick out his chest and offer all kinds of predictions and advice to the Bush administration stuck in a policy swamp. When in doubt? Bomb them! Iraq, Iran, North Korea, California…..
These great men and their lousy predictions can take some solace in that they’re benchmark failures pale in comparison to the Vice President’s various pronouncements over the past 6 years.
Some may believe that I may be tad cruel here. But frankly, I don't care. Regardless of how many new skins they try to regenerate, these pundits remain serpents with no backbones and fork tongues.